Developers capital chain can hold 8 months real estate golden age will die

The golden era of the real estate industry is coming to an end; no one doubts the government's determination, and no one dares to bet that this is only a false alarm.

In front of you is an intersection. You don't know which side to choose. You only know where you stand and how you can move forward. No matter whether you are left or right, developers must make choices.

Some market participants have linked this crisis with Wang Shi and Ren Zhiqiang, who have recently faded out of the front desk. This is somewhat far-fetched. Wang and Ren’s study tour and retirement plan were not due to the current market situation. However, the conclusion is actually "beating with justice," and the golden age of the real estate industry is indeed about to pass.

With restrictions on purchases and credit tightening, the good days for developers to “make money on golf” have become history. With the arrival of 10 million units in 2011 and 36 million units in the next five years, no matter whether it can actually be converted into an effective supply, the market space for commercial housing will undoubtedly be greatly squeezed.

Some people questioned whether the security housing can really land? Even if they fall, the relevant entry and exit mechanisms have yet to be improved, and there may be a mismatch between supply and demand, leading to an increase in the availability of affordable housing. However, from the central to the localities, all current information indicates that the housing sector is “fast moving forward.” From April 2010 to now, the illusions have gradually vanished. No one doubts the government's determination, and no one dares to bet that this is just "A false alarm."

Lost "Amulet"

Unlike any previous regulation, the “new eight countries” with the “restricted purchase order” as the core has completely extinguished the only hint of optimism before the developers. The pessimism and extreme pessimism spread in the market, even if some claim to maintain "Carefully optimistic", but the urgency of business transformation has been difficult to conceal.

After the new “State of the Eight”, purchase restrictions were used as the main tool. The government fully understands the side-effects of restrictions on purchases and still promotes them in an all-round way, highlighting the strength and determination of regulation and control. However, in the absence of institutional issues such as land finance, the difficulty of real estate regulation is self-evident.

The power of the “restricted purchase order” can be imagined, and it is still unknown when to withdraw (see the “Restricted Purchase of Tornadoes”, Issue 8, 2011). Wu Yajun, president of Longhu Group (column) stated at the company's March 21st performance conference, "I believe macro-control will show repeated effects for a period of time in the future. The industry and the developer's brand and operation Capabilities, execution capabilities, financial security are a major test, and we may see a big change in the industry."

Credit has also been firmly suppressed by the government. In addition to increasing the down payment for the second suite and the three suites, the bank's development loans to developers have also become tighter. A person from the China Development Bank revealed to Caixin’s “New Century” reporter that some banks have already planned to stop providing development loans to developers. “A large-scale housing company that was previously chased by the four major banks, has recently encountered a bankruptcy, and finally The CDB was very happy to receive a few hundred million yuan in loans."

Government agencies have also hinted on various occasions that developers need to “find their way out”. A privately-owned listed real estate company official told Caixin’s “New Century” reporter that in the past, the country was engaged in urbanization and it was necessary for developers to join in with the government. In fact, local governments also benefited from it. Now, housing prices are soaring. The real estate bubble and other crimes in the third-tier cities have been blamed on the developers. "The government had to put it on the table before the table trading. In order to give the government its name, the developer must be a target."

In addition to the above-mentioned psychological and practical pressures, the publication of the Safeguard Housing Program squeezed the market space of commercial housing on the one hand; on the other hand, it tore off the “amulet” of the real estate industry that stimulates domestic demand, stimulates the industrial chain, and pulls GDP. ".

A think-tank close to the decision-makers once told Caixin’s “New Century” reporter that there are three threats to real estate: real estate is the economic engine, and the crackdown on the real estate market will slow down the economic growth, and the banks will be locked up. The people will become Negative equity.

However, bank risk is now considered to be quantifiable, and the main source of regulation and control is the affluent people who finally entered the market. As for the pulling effect of the economy, it is possible to make up for the shortfall in the opening of the commercial housing market through 10 million sets of affordable housing in 2011 and 36 million sets of affordable housing in the next five years.

All of the above information conveyed the same direction. The golden age of real estate "as long as it can be built will never be sold out" is coming to an end, and developers have come to the crossroads of strategic transformation.

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